Racebook Insider: The World of Horse Betting

Monday, April 30, 2007

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby

One of the toughest bets in the world of sports to pick correctly is the Kentucky Derby. You have a huge field of horses to pick from and historically the favorite never wins, so what’s a bettor with limited horse-racing understanding to do? Most observers Kentucky Derby knowledge is limited to the fact that the race is comprised of horses, is run in Kentucky and the winner gets one of those wreath thingys.

Looking for more info on handicapping the Kentucky Derby? Here's a great article.

Even with a large number of horses running for the roses, you can actually narrow down the field of horses that are worth a bet by looking at the Derby’s history. Like we said earlier the first thing to remember when placing your bets is that the post favorite almost never wins the Derby. For the rest of our historical handicapping you’ll have to do a little research on the horses.

The first thing to look into is the horse’s trainers and jockeys. You’ll want to avoid placing your hard-earned money on any trainers or jockeys that are making their Derby debut. The grand stage of the Derby has tended to get to these rookies and keeps them from crossing the finish line first in their debut appearance.

After checking out the jockeys and trainers you’ll need to examine the recent results. Your Derby winner must be a stakes winner and should have run in at least one 1 1/8-mile prep race. You’ll also want to make sure your horse is ready for the Derby, but not too tired. Ideally, you’ll want your horse to have run in three to four Derby prep races. No more, no less.

By now you should have cut down the field of possible picks by at least a few horses. Now comes the more in-depth research. Most Derby winners tend to be horses with good tactical speed and an ability to stalk from the middle of the field. The horses you’ll want to avoid are horses that simply boast pure speed but lack important stamina, and horses renowned for making rallies from the back of the pack. Once a horse falls to the back of the pack in the Derby they’re not going to get to the front.

This isn’t where Derby handicapping stops, but it’s a good starting point for Kentucky Derby betting newbies and veteran bettors who are still looking to crack the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs.


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Friday, April 27, 2007

Kentucky Derby Festival, Odds

It’s the biggest thing to hit Kentucky since Daniel Boone.

You can have your Tournament of Roses Parade, your Olympic ceremonies, and especially your Super Bowl halftime show. The Kentucky Derby Festival is where it’s at. For two weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby itself, the city of Louisville becomes one giant party. And it seems to get bigger every year. The budget for the 2007 festival has ballooned to over $6 million.

The party officially began with the Fillies Derby Ball on Apr. 20; however, the first events of note to sports fans were the basketball festivities on Apr. 13 and 14, featuring some of the premier high school players in the nation. Following a format similar to the NBA All-Star Game, the “Night of the Future Stars” included the popular slam-dunk and 3-point shooting contests, as well as a 2-on-2 battle won by Duke recruit Nolan Smith and Kansas State recruit Michael Beasley. The following day, Beasley led the “Black” team with 23 points and 16 rebounds in a 140-117 pasting of the “Gold” team in the main event, the “Basketball Classic.”

After the famed “Thunder Over Louisville” airshow, the festival’s pro-am golf tournament teed off this past Monday. The biggest sports event before the Derby itself, though, has to be the marathon. Among the 10,000-plus runners expected for Saturday’s race are returning four-time champion Charles Njeru Kamindo and a host of athletes attempting to qualify for the U.S. Olympic team.

Kentucky Derby Odds

Really, though, it’s all about the bed races. Thousands of people will be on hand to watch teams of five push their beds down a 600-foot track (or 900 feet for the “open” division). We’re not sure what the Beyer speed numbers are for this year’s field, but we’re sure Hunter S. Thompson would approve.

Who are your Kentucky Derby contenders? At 3/1 odds to win the Kentucky Derby, Curlin is still your favorite. The Bodog Racebook also lists Street Sense at 5/1 odds to win; and Nobiz Like Shobiz is at 6/1 odds to win.

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Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Kentucky Derby Odds Shift in Curlin's Favor

By the looks of most Kentucky Derby future odds, Padua Stables' Curlin will be the horse to beat in the 133rd "Run for the Roses" on May 5th.

Currently favored at 4/1, this hard-racing son of Smart Strike and Sherrif's Deputy has recorded three wins in three starts, and so far generated earnings of more than $800,000. The odds have shifted in Curlin's favor with his most recent victory of 10 1/2 lengths in the Arkansas Derby.

Previous favorite and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense is now appearing at 5/1 in futures, followed by Nobiz Like Shobiz at 6/1.

Street Sense was recently beaten at the wire by longshot Dominican in the Blue Grass Stakes. Another Derby contender, Any Given Saturday, edged out Nobiz like Shobiz in the Wood Memorial.

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