Curlin an Increasingly Unlikely Preakness Pick?

The Johnny-come-lately darling of the Derby, Curlin, has now become something of a Preakness pariah for horse racing handicappers.

The Associated Press carried a story this morning by David Ginsburg, variously titled things like "No One's Talking About Curlin at Pimilco" or "Preakness: Curlin Now an Afterthought". in which the author says Curlin may as well have been last at the Kentucky Derby "considering the lack of attention he's received at Pimlico Race Course this week before the Preakness." Ouch.

And while the Kentucky Derby third-place finisher is still holding in at 7-2, the "big matchup" at the Preakness Stakes is apparently between favorite Street Sense and Hard Spun. This is certainly the attitude of veteran thoroughbred handicapper Steve Davidowitz, while conceding that Curlin "seems in an excellent position to raise his game another notch," nonetheless focused on the two front-runners in his column yesterday.

Is anybody rooting for Curlin? John Eisenberg says that Curlin is the biggest roadblock that Street Sense faces in his attempt to capture the second jewel of the Triple Crown. And he points out that between 1985 and 1997, "when no fewer than nine Preakness winners stopped Triple Crown bids here after losing in the Derby." Something to chew on.

It's worth considering the factors that played out in Curlin's run at the Derby, where he faced 19 other horses. As Dick Jerardi says:

Unlike Street Sense and Hard Spun, Curlin was in traffic from the start of the Derby and never got a clear run until deep in the stretch. He had to come from 14th without the rail parting like the Red Sea.

Jerardi goes onto make a shrewd analysis of the odds, closing his discussion of Curlin with this sage observation:

So, it really comes down to Street Sense at, say, 4-5, Hard Spun at around 2-1 or Curlin at 5-1. Without a strong opinion, I would prefer the best price. So that puts me on Curlin.

While not exactly a lone voice, Jerardi at least has elevated the conversation surrounding the possible Preakness winner from "can Hard Spun beat Street Sense" to "where's the smart money?" While I'm still undecided, like Jerardi, I'm not yet counting Curlin out of the running.

Technorati tag(s): preakness, curlin

Preakness Field to Include Zito's CP West

Trainer Nick Zito has confirmed that the CP West, runner-up in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes, will run in the 2007 Preakness this Saturday at Pimlico. This now brings to eight the number of horses expected to start in the middle jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown.

Zito made the decision after the colt breezed four furlongs in 0:47.24 at Belmont Park -- the second-fastest time of 105 timed workouts at that distance.

In other Preakness Contender news...

• While Domenico Zannino's Xchanger missed the Derby, he will be at the post at Pimlico. While Zannino acknowledged the competition Xchanger faces from Curlin, Street Sense and Hard Spun, he expects some advantage from the fact that Xchanger has had a four-week layoff, rather than two.
• Jockey Mario Pino will be the local favorite as he again rides Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun in the Preakness.
• Frozen out in yet another Derby, Todd Pletcher will make an appearance at Preakness 132 in the form of King of the Roxy, who came in second in the Santa Anita Derby. This will not be King's first race with Street Sense; the two horses shared the track at the Breeders' Cup. Street Sense, of course, won by a record-breaking 10 lengths, while King of the Roxy finished eight (can someone say "longshot"?).
• Untested Mint Slewlep will be appearing in the Preakness Stakes. The 3-year-old son of Slew City Slew has run three times this year, posting a fifth in the Gotham and fourth in the Withers (both Grade 3).

In all, something in the range of 11 horses are expected to meet for this year's big race at Pimlico. Street Sense remains the Preakness odds favorite after his astonishing come-from-behind victory in the Derby.

Technorati tag(s): preakness odds, triple crown

The Hard Spun-Street Sense Preakness Rivalry

The Hard Spun-Street Sense rivalry is set to continue beyond the backstretch of the Kentucky Derby and on to the Pimlico Race Course for the Preakness Stakes.

Both horses will be in the field for the 132nd running of Maryland’s $1-million event and Hard Spun’s trainers figure he’s well suited to knock jockey Calvin Morel and trainer Carl Nafzger off their high horse and win this event.

“We have may to do something different here if we are going to spoil (Street Sense’s) Triple Crown,” says Larry Jones. “I like Carl a lot but I don’t intend for him to have the Triple Crown.”

Jones actually considered skipping the Kentucky Derby to have Hard Spun focus specifically on this leg of the Triple Crown.

“We just felt like the way this horse had trained on surfaces similar to Pimlico, we were not expecting to handle the Churchill surface as well as he did,” says Jones. “(But) he rode the picture perfect ride that’s supposed to win the Derby. That’s one reason we opted to be there. Plus that’s my horse, he’s got that high cruising speed to set out there and do that. We thought we did everything it took to win the race.”

Hard Spun was a 12/1 shot to win the Derby and led the entire race before being overtaken by pre-race betting favorite Street Sense on the backstretch to finish second by 2 ½ lengths.

The Preakness Stakes runs on Saturday May 19th.

Technorati tag(s): pimlico