Curlin an Increasingly Unlikely Preakness Pick?

The Johnny-come-lately darling of the Derby, Curlin, has now become something of a Preakness pariah for horse racing handicappers.

The Associated Press carried a story this morning by David Ginsburg, variously titled things like "No One's Talking About Curlin at Pimilco" or "Preakness: Curlin Now an Afterthought". in which the author says Curlin may as well have been last at the Kentucky Derby "considering the lack of attention he's received at Pimlico Race Course this week before the Preakness." Ouch.

And while the Kentucky Derby third-place finisher is still holding in at 7-2, the "big matchup" at the Preakness Stakes is apparently between favorite Street Sense and Hard Spun. This is certainly the attitude of veteran thoroughbred handicapper Steve Davidowitz, while conceding that Curlin "seems in an excellent position to raise his game another notch," nonetheless focused on the two front-runners in his column yesterday.

Is anybody rooting for Curlin? John Eisenberg says that Curlin is the biggest roadblock that Street Sense faces in his attempt to capture the second jewel of the Triple Crown. And he points out that between 1985 and 1997, "when no fewer than nine Preakness winners stopped Triple Crown bids here after losing in the Derby." Something to chew on.

It's worth considering the factors that played out in Curlin's run at the Derby, where he faced 19 other horses. As Dick Jerardi says:

Unlike Street Sense and Hard Spun, Curlin was in traffic from the start of the Derby and never got a clear run until deep in the stretch. He had to come from 14th without the rail parting like the Red Sea.

Jerardi goes onto make a shrewd analysis of the odds, closing his discussion of Curlin with this sage observation:

So, it really comes down to Street Sense at, say, 4-5, Hard Spun at around 2-1 or Curlin at 5-1. Without a strong opinion, I would prefer the best price. So that puts me on Curlin.

While not exactly a lone voice, Jerardi at least has elevated the conversation surrounding the possible Preakness winner from "can Hard Spun beat Street Sense" to "where's the smart money?" While I'm still undecided, like Jerardi, I'm not yet counting Curlin out of the running.

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