Kentucky Derby Odds Shorten Following Workouts
As Col. Potter used to say, horse hockey.
We suspected the Kentucky Derby odds on Street Sense would shorten considerably based on Tuesday’s excellent workouts. And that’s just what happened. Before Wednesday night’s announcement of the 20-horse field, Street Sense was sitting pretty at 6/1; afterward, he was 9/2. Meanwhile, the favored Curlin shed some chalk by going from 3/1 to 9/5. He might be No. 2 on the futures market by the time it closes.
So much for value. Street Sense was worth investigating as an underrated horse, based in part on winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That’s supposed to be some kind of curse; there have been 22 Juvenile champions in the event’s history, and not one has gone on to win the Run for the Roses. As they say, correlation does not equal causation. Otherwise, nobody would like Curlin’s chances – he had zero races as a 2-year-old, and no horse since Apollo has won the Derby under those circumstances. That was way back in 1882.
However much stock you care to put in either these trends, you’ll no longer find much value in either of the top two favorites. That sends us in a Brady Quinn-like freefall down the odds list to Great Hunter and Dominican. Even there, we’ve seen Great Hunter close up from 17/1 to 15/1 and now he’s at 20/1 (Dominican is holding at 19/1). (Bodog Racebook Kentucky Derby odds.)
Both horses performed well in their last prep race at Keeneland, the Blue Grass Stakes on Apr. 14. The three-week layoff is considered optimal for the Derby, but the fact that Keeneland is a Polytrack surface has raised more than one skeptical eyebrow about the results. The artificial surface has yet to win the confidence of bettors as a fair indicator of how a horse will perform on dirt or grass.
Regardless, we should at least give Dominican a look; he won the Blue Grass Stakes, and his competition there all had to perform in the same conditions.
Technorati tag(s): kentucky derby odds
We suspected the Kentucky Derby odds on Street Sense would shorten considerably based on Tuesday’s excellent workouts. And that’s just what happened. Before Wednesday night’s announcement of the 20-horse field, Street Sense was sitting pretty at 6/1; afterward, he was 9/2. Meanwhile, the favored Curlin shed some chalk by going from 3/1 to 9/5. He might be No. 2 on the futures market by the time it closes.
So much for value. Street Sense was worth investigating as an underrated horse, based in part on winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That’s supposed to be some kind of curse; there have been 22 Juvenile champions in the event’s history, and not one has gone on to win the Run for the Roses. As they say, correlation does not equal causation. Otherwise, nobody would like Curlin’s chances – he had zero races as a 2-year-old, and no horse since Apollo has won the Derby under those circumstances. That was way back in 1882.
However much stock you care to put in either these trends, you’ll no longer find much value in either of the top two favorites. That sends us in a Brady Quinn-like freefall down the odds list to Great Hunter and Dominican. Even there, we’ve seen Great Hunter close up from 17/1 to 15/1 and now he’s at 20/1 (Dominican is holding at 19/1). (Bodog Racebook Kentucky Derby odds.)
Both horses performed well in their last prep race at Keeneland, the Blue Grass Stakes on Apr. 14. The three-week layoff is considered optimal for the Derby, but the fact that Keeneland is a Polytrack surface has raised more than one skeptical eyebrow about the results. The artificial surface has yet to win the confidence of bettors as a fair indicator of how a horse will perform on dirt or grass.
Regardless, we should at least give Dominican a look; he won the Blue Grass Stakes, and his competition there all had to perform in the same conditions.
Technorati tag(s): kentucky derby odds
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